Thoughts & Musings
Gray Rhino - Why we ignore obvious problems
Responding to COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic is, with little doubt, the most challenging crisis many people will see in their lifetimes and without a doubt, it will be the more challenging crisis that many businesses will face. To successfully navigate these challenging times, firms will need to take a strategic approach; first and foremost, they must protect their existing business and then, look to grow its value as opportunities will no doubt emerge.
Firms who have implemented and embedded an integrated, enterprise approach to risk management will be best positioned for survival and growth at these uncertain times.
COVID-19 - Bill Gates saw it coming!
In 2014, the world avoided a global outbreak of Ebola, thanks to thousands of selfless health workers -- plus, frankly, some very good luck. In hindsight, we know what we should have done better. So, now's the time, Bill Gates suggests, to put all our good ideas into practice, from scenario planning to vaccine research to health worker training. As he says, there is no need to panic but we need to get going.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on COVID19 - Not a Black Swan
Is COVID-19 a Black Swan event?
In the matter of a few weeks, the way that people work and play has been turned on its head due to COVID-19. Governments and businesses worldwide have been scrambling to react to the latest twists and turns of this crisis. Many have been caught flat-footed and ill-prepared. Given the nature of COVID-19, and the speed with which it has spread and the impact it is having globally, it is tempting to think about COVID-19 as a Black Swan event.
However in this article, I argue that rather than a Black Swan, we should categorise COVID-19 as a Gray Rhino.
Events, dear boy, events...
Events, dear boy, events…this is a quote often attributed to former British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan and one that will be ringing in the ears of many business and risk professionals as they watched turbulence unfold in the markets yesterday. Many will now be waking up, asking themselves what does the coronavirus and this market turmoil mean for them.
Strategy as a Hypothesis. Risk as a Hypothesis.
Business is Risk Management
A simple way to think about culture from Richie McCaw
